Highlights

• This research introduces a novel ERGM-QAP methodology to quantify socio-ecological fit between IEAs and EET, improving the analysis of large-scale international networks.
• The findings show a declining trend in socio-ecological fit, indicating that current international agreements are insufficient to address growing trade-related emissions.
• The study identifies regional differences in countries’ roles in contributing to socio-ecological fit and highlights an 8.7-year periodic trend in global fit patterns.

Summary

This study examines the alignment between international environmental agreements (IEAs) and carbon emissions embodied in global trade (EET). The authors assess “social-ecological fit” by analyzing data from 1995-2021 on 189 countries using statistical models to measure the connection between international cooperation on emissions and actual carbon flow patterns.

Findings show a declining fit over time, indicating that the effectiveness of IEAs in addressing trade-embedded emissions has weakened, partially due to uneven contributions by nations and regional blocks. The study also identifies an 8.68-year periodic cycle in the fit trends and suggests future scenarios for IEAs under different socioeconomic pathways.

Policy recommendations include accelerating IEA adoption, integrating carbon markets among key countries, and adopting common carbon credits to better address ecological and social mismatches in emissions governance.

M. Chen and Z. Xu, “Assessing socio-ecological fit of international environmental agreements and trade-embodied carbon flows,” Environmental Impact Assessment Review, vol. 106, p. 107534, May 2024, doi: 10.1016/j.eiar.2024.107534.